7-day fog outlook · Kankakee / Bourbonnais

7-day fog outlook — Kankakee / Bourbonnais

dashboard · tonight · 7-day outlook · region: Kankakee / Bourbonnais

run 2026-10-16T00:24-05:00 · home point 41.1530, -87.8790

Set-up score = the same factor blend the day-1 report uses, before calibration. It ranks mornings; it is not a probability. Day 1 is calibrated in the main report. ★ = best-ranked morning beyond tomorrow.

morning	set-up	band	type	light	T−Td min	wind	mid+high cloud	sunrise	models
Fri 16 Oct	0.05	poor	shallow ground fog	overcast above the fog	2.4 °C	13.8 kt	47 %	07:04 · 101.3°	5 (HRRR primary), spread 0.07
Sat 17 Oct	0.20	poor	shallow ground fog	sun will reach the fog top	4.5 °C	8.4 kt	0 %	07:05 · 101.8°	5 (HRRR primary), spread 0.44
Sun 18 Oct	0.45	marginal	shallow ground fog	sun will reach the fog top	3.3 °C	6.4 kt	0 %	07:06 · 102.3°	4 (ECMWF primary), spread 0.54
Mon 19 Oct	0.51	marginal	shallow ground fog	sun will reach the fog top	2.2 °C	4.2 kt	0 %	07:07 · 102.7°	4 (ECMWF primary), spread 0.58
Tue 20 Oct	0.54	marginal	shallow ground fog	filtered sun	1.4 °C	2.6 kt	24 %	07:09 · 103.2°	4 (ECMWF primary), spread 0.64
Wed 21 Oct	0.59	marginal	shallow ground fog	sun will reach the fog top	1.7 °C	3.7 kt	3 %	07:10 · 103.7°	4 (ECMWF primary), spread 0.68
Thu 22 Oct ★	0.60	marginal	shallow ground fog	filtered sun	1.2 °C	2.2 kt	36 %	07:11 · 104.2°	4 (ECMWF primary), spread 0.63

What a set-up score has meant (day-1 backtest, raw score before calibration, airport mornings)

strong set-up (≥ 0.75): fog on 25 % of 44 mornings
decent set-up (≥ 0.60): fog on 17 % of 82 mornings
marginal (≥ 0.45): fog on 12 % of 154 mornings
poor (≥ 0.00): fog on 8 % of 285 mornings

Ranking skill by lead (AUC from the lead backtest; 0.5 = none, 1 = perfect): 1 day ahead 0.746, 2 days ahead 0.726, 3 days ahead 0.738, 5 days ahead 0.627

Fri 16 Oct — set-up 0.05, poor

Confidencesee the main report (calibrated, HRRR included)Typeshallow ground fogLightovercast above the fogSunrise07:04 at 101.3° ESEHours saturated0Per modelgfs_hrrr 0.039, ecmwf_ifs025 0.016, gfs_global 0.062, icon_seamless 0.044, ncep_nbm_conus 0.082

Sat 17 Oct — set-up 0.20, poor

ConfidenceHRRR reaches this morning; models usually agree on the airmass; backtest AUC at this lead 0.726 (measured at 2 days)Typeshallow ground fogLightsun will reach the fog topSunrise07:05 at 101.8° ESEHours saturated0Per modelgfs_hrrr 0.092, ecmwf_ifs025 0.111, gfs_global 0.104, icon_seamless 0.117, ncep_nbm_conus 0.529

Sun 18 Oct — set-up 0.45, marginal

Confidenceset-up only: dewpoint, wind and sky from the global models; backtest AUC at this lead 0.738 (measured at 3 days)Typeshallow ground fogLightsun will reach the fog topSunrise07:06 at 102.3° ESEHours saturated0Per modelgfs_hrrr None, ecmwf_ifs025 0.421, gfs_global 0.109, icon_seamless 0.508, ncep_nbm_conus 0.651

Mon 19 Oct — set-up 0.51, marginal

Confidenceset-up only: dewpoint, wind and sky from the global models; backtest AUC at this lead 0.738 (measured at 3 days)Typeshallow ground fogLightsun will reach the fog topSunrise07:07 at 102.7° ESEHours saturated0Per modelgfs_hrrr None, ecmwf_ifs025 0.579, gfs_global 0.133, icon_seamless 0.713, ncep_nbm_conus 0.549

Tue 20 Oct — set-up 0.54, marginal

Confidencepattern only; expect the number to move; backtest AUC at this lead 0.627 (measured at 5 days)Typeshallow ground fogLightfiltered sunSunrise07:09 at 103.2° ESEHours saturated0Per modelgfs_hrrr None, ecmwf_ifs025 0.731, gfs_global 0.095, icon_seamless 0.623, ncep_nbm_conus 0.592

Wed 21 Oct — set-up 0.59, marginal

Confidencepattern only; expect the number to move; backtest AUC at this lead 0.627 (measured at 5 days)Typeshallow ground fogLightsun will reach the fog topSunrise07:10 at 103.7° ESEHours saturated0Per modelgfs_hrrr None, ecmwf_ifs025 0.712, gfs_global 0.116, icon_seamless 0.567, ncep_nbm_conus 0.799

Thu 22 Oct — set-up 0.60, marginal

Confidencepattern only; expect the number to move; backtest AUC at this lead 0.627 (measured at 5 days)Typeshallow ground fogLightfiltered sunSunrise07:11 at 104.2° ESEHours saturated0Per modelgfs_hrrr None, ecmwf_ifs025 0.767, gfs_global 0.136, icon_seamless 0.689, ncep_nbm_conus 0.683

Honesty notes

Days 2–7 use ECMWF, GFS, ICON and NBM (HRRR where its 48 h reach allows). The set-up score is the raw factor blend; it ranks mornings and is not a calibrated probability.
Skill falls with lead. Use days 5–7 only to spot a pattern; re-check nightly and treat the day-1 report as the decision.
No vertical profile, river gauge or NBM bulletin feeds the outlook; those are day-1 checks only.